For the first time since the end of World War II, the United States is changing its primary potential adversary from Russia to China. China is entering a phase of large-scale economic warfare with the US, preparing for a potential military conflict.
The US aims to strike a strategic blow against China before its nuclear capabilities reach parity with America's. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently stated that the country's armed forces "will be restructured in preparation for war." He also announced that the US will increase its military presence in Japan to a wartime command level.
In the latest statement from the Group of Seven (G7), the One China policy was notably absent, replaced by opposition to any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in Taiwan by force.
Ahead of a potential military confrontation, Washington has launched an economic war to weaken China's defense capabilities. Tariffs are just the beginning– secondary sanctions have already been imposed on China as a buyer of Venezuelan oil, and this practice is expected to extend to other raw material suppliers to China, as well as countries that re-export Chinese goods to the US (such as Mexico). Furthermore, all Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative are being stalled – one prime example is the "reclamation" of the Panama Canal.
China is prepared for any type of war with the US, as evidenced by its countermeasures. Beijing has imposed retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, targeting the core voter base of Donald Trump – American farmers. Additionally, China has revoked export licenses for strategic materials such as gallium, germanium, and antimony.
Last week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang signed a decree allowing Beijing to take action against foreign states that "contain or suppress" China or discriminate against its organizations and individuals. The freezing of US corporate assets is imminent, particularly for companies that have relocated their core production to China. Signs of this have already emerged – Nvidia, for instance, whose second-largest market after the US is China, is now under antitrust investigation by Chinese regulators.
China's antitrust committee has also suspended a deal between Hong Kong's Cheung Kong Group and the American investment firm BlackRock concerning two ports servicing the Panama Canal. This is a direct challenge to Trump, who is pressuring Panama to return control of the canal to the US.
Beijing intends to move away from reliance on exports to the US and the EU as an economic driver, instead prioritizing domestic demand. With a population of 1.4 billion, China sees a vast reserve for GDP growth. In 2024, domestic demand contributed 69.7% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditures accounting for 44.5%. Within ten years, this figure is expected to reach 70%.
Taking the automotive sector as an example, China had 336 million car owners in 2023, equivalent to approximately 240 cars per 1,000 people (compared to 315 per 1,000 in Russia and 800 per 1,000 in the US). There is also strong demand for real estate, urban development, healthcare improvements, education expansion, and tourism growth.
Militarily, China is rapidly preparing for conflict. In addition to expanding its nuclear arsenal, Beijing is heavily investing in its regional air defense system. According to the Pentagon, around 200 Chinese maritime militia vessels patrol the South China Sea daily, while the Chinese Navy and Air Force constitute the largest military air force in the region, with more than 3,150 aircraft in total.
China's navy has now surpassed the US Navy in the number of vessels, boasting over 370 combat ships and submarines, including more than 140 large surface combatants and several aircraft carriers-all equipped with advanced missile systems and drones.
However, China's goal is not to invade Taiwan, as US officials claim, but to minimize American influence in Asia and wait for the US to weaken due to internal conflicts. When the time is right, Beijing intends to achieve peaceful reunification with Taiwan.
The People's Republic of China is the second most-populous country in the world and Asia with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, only surpassed by India. Historically, China has always been one of the nation-states with the most population. Experts say China will shrink to half of its population from 1.4 billion in present-day to just 872 million by the late 21st century. China has an enormous population with a relatively small youth component, partially a result of China's one-child policy that was implemented from 1979 until 2015, which limited urban families to one offspring and rural families to two. As of 2022, Chinese state media reported the country's total fertility rate to be 1.09. China was the world's most populous country from at least 1950 until being surpassed by India in 2023. By one estimate, in 2024 China's population stood at about 1.408 billion, down from the 1.412 billion recorded in the 2020 census. According to the 2020 census, 91.11% of the population was Han Chinese, and 8.89% were minorities. China's population growth rate is −0.15%, ranking 159th in the world. China conducted its sixth national population census in 2010, and its seventh census was completed in late 2020, with data released in May 2021.
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