Raila's Juba trip: Can he salvage Kenya's tarnished foreign policy?

President William Ruto’s decision to appoint former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as Special Envoy to South Sudan has yet again thrust Kenya into the international limelight at a time when its image abroad has taken a beating.

Raila’s visit to Sudan in a bid to arrest the conflict threatening to explode to full-scale war following the arrest of second Vice president Riek Machar has been interpreted as a strategy for a fresh approach to Kenya’s foreign relations that has suffered major setbacks owing to diplomatic gaffes.

“I had a telephone conversation with President Salva Kiir about the situation that led to the arrest and detention of First Vice President Riek Machar in South Sudan. After consultations with President Museveni and PM Abiy (Ethiopia) I’m sending a special envoy to South Sudan to engage, try to de-escalate and report back to us,” the President announced on his X platform yesterday.

The tension in South Sudan has attracted regional and international observers with the US urging President Kiir to release Machar  maintaining it was time the country’s leaders demonstrated their commitment to peace.

“We are concerned by reports that South Sudan’s First Vice President Machar is under house arrest,” Washington’s Bureau of African Affairs wrote on X.

Ruto said Kenya was doing what it could with other partners and regional mechanisms to contain the situation in South Sudan.

“Just this morning, I sent Raila Odinga to South Sudan because there is a situation that could lead to the export of more refugees from that country unless it is contained. We have a robust conversation on containing the situation in Sudan. We are actively making sure that we do what we can to have less refugees and asylum seekers,” he said at State House Nairobi.

 The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has also expressed alarm over reports of the house arrest of the SPLM-IO party leader and the escalating political tensions in South Sudan.

Violent conflict

“These developments seriously undermine the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) and risk plunging the country back into violent conflict,” Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, IGAD Executive Secretary said.

Raila yesterday said he met with President Kiir but could not access Machar who is under house arrest. He further noted the situation is very fluid and needs critical attention.

Raila’s mission comes at a time when Kenya is suffering diplomatic setbacks with several countries such as Serbia, Sudan, Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) among other countries raising questions about whether he will succeed in solving the country’s diplomatic tiffs.

On Thursday, the Serbian government condemned Kenya’s decision to recognise Kosovo as an independent state, terming the move a violation of international law.

Kenya had on Wednesday announced its recognition of Kosovo following a meeting between President William Ruto and Kosovo’s special envoy, Behgjet Pacolli, at State House, Nairobi.

Kenya is also not on good terms with Sudan after its opposition leaders were allowed to gather at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), Nairobi to form a parallel government. 

In a statement, Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Kenya of dishonoring agreements and supporting RSF’s alleged war crimes and human rights violations. 

“Hosting leaders of the terrorist RSF militia and allowing them to conduct political and propaganda activities—while they continue to perpetrate genocide, massacre civilians on an ethnic basis, attack IDP camps, and commit acts of rape—constitutes an endorsement of and complicity in these heinous crimes,” the ministry said on Wednesday, February 19.

The Sudanese Ministry further accused Kenya of violating regional diplomatic principles and breaching pledges made at the highest levels to prevent hostile activities against Sudan on Kenyan soil. 

“This act by the Kenyan government is not only a violation of good neighborliness but also amounts to hostility against the Sudanese people,” the ministry added. 

Sudan also accused Kenya of undermining African state sovereignty and interfering in its internal affairs and urged the international community to condemn Kenya’s actions and vowed to take necessary measures to “redress the balance.” 

 In 2023, Sudan’s military leader, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, rejected the nomination of President Ruto as a peace mediator and instead favoured South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir.

On September 16, 2022, President Ruto’s tweet that he later deleted sparked confusion after he wrote that Kenya would no longer recognise Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

For Raila, the South Sudan assignment will be the second mission since his first mission was in Ivory Coast in 2011 where he has been deployed by the then African Union Commission Jean Ping to broker a truce between Allsane Outtara who had won the elections and was endorsed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) while his rival Laurent Gbagbo refused to leave office leading to post election clashes. The trip was not a success as one party said he was a biased mediator. 

Foreign affairs experts have waded into the matter, questioning Raila’s capability to mediate between the warring parties and whether President Ruto had consulted regional bodies such as IGAD and the African Union (AU).

According to Prof Peter Kagwanja, Raila, as an individual, was competent and had the necessary networks to serve as an arbiter. However, he was quick to note that without approval from regional bodies, Raila’s efforts would be futile.

“When Kalonzo was appointed special envoy to South Sudan in 2019, there was evidence that stakeholders, including regional bodies, had been involved. In Raila’s case, there is no proof that those who need to be engaged are part of his mission,” Kagwanja observed.

Prof Macharia Munene interpreted Raila’s mission as part of Ruto’s strategy to sideline him in a bid to appeal to his regional voting bloc and strengthen his position among Raila’s support base.