2025 Federal Election: Sky News Australia's experts reveal which issues will shape voter sentiment

Which seats will fall?

Chief Election Analyst, Tom Connell

The country has never been more divided – and I don’t mean in a political sense. The next election won’t be about a national mood, but instead a series of isolated contests across Australia.

WA delivered Labor its majority in 2022, and it’s likely to hold up well for the government this time around.

The new seat of Bullwinkel is the most likely to flip from Labor to Coalition, with the state’s resource- rich economy meaning sandgropers are in a forgiving mood.

It couldn’t be more different in Victoria, where a series of new taxes to prop up the state’s dire finances have Labor hardheads worried. 3 seats are highly likely to fall, but 6 or 7 could go if anti-Labor state sentiment starts to infect the national brand.

NSW is somewhat of a middle ground – a state government that is still relatively popular, but a host of seats that Labor could still lose. Again 2 to 3 seats are likely to go from Labor to Liberal in and around Sydney, but a new battleground could also prove to be significant, with the opposition targeting Labor’s once stronghold of coal-country in the Hunter valley.

In Queensland it will be about whether the Greens can hang on to their 3 gained seats in Brisbane from 2022. Both major parties think they could all fall, but they are still very much up for grabs.

There won’t be much focus on SA or Tasmania – with only a couple of seats in play in each state.

The biggest mystery right now is whether the so-called Teal MPs can hang on to their seats. Teal and community independents hold 6 seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. The Liberal party will target all of them to some degree, and there’s a big band of how successful they could be – anything from 0 to 4. That number could decide whether it’s the Coalition or Labor with more seats, and as a result who forms government.

In a race this close, every moment matters

Political Editor, Andrew Clennell

The prospect of a hung parliament result looks certain, barring some major development in the campaign. An untraditionally large crossbench and very tight polling numbers point to that.

Polls consistently show Labor losing 8-10 seats, but the swing not being enough to give Peter Dutton 15 seats which would make him almost a certainty for minority government, or the mammoth 20 seats that the Opposition Leader requires for majority government. Anthony Albanese's vote is down about three points from the last election - enough to see him lose the three seat overall majority that he has, and a few more seats to boot.

So it's a rare election in that all three results appear very possible - a win for either side or even a draw, where both sides would be unable to form government in their own right and Australians would face the nightmare of another election.

The unpredictability of the election makes it a fascinating contest. As one Senator recently said to me: "I've never gone to an election where both sides expect to lose".

In such a tight contest, every day - every moment - of the campaign will matter. Voters go to the polls wary of both sides so, in that great tradition of the compulsory preferential system that Australia has, the choice will be about who Australians see as the least worst option.

An interest rate cut in February gives the government more chance of hanging onto office with a reasonable amount of seats but a battering of price rises over three years means the electorate has no affection for the government or the prime minister.

As a journalist covering the contest, I don't see the finish line as election day, as I traditionally might. The finish line in terms of a result is probably two to three weeks later when Independents have declared who they are giving confidence and supply to in the House of Representatives.

Teals, Trump and Tech: Three factors set to shift the voting landscape

AM Agenda Political Presenter Laura Jayes

The teal independent MPs will likely decide the next Prime Minister of Australia.

Let me explain… there are 10 Teal independents in the lower house and whilst they insist they are not a party, their views are largely aligned.

The polls tell us we are headed for a hung parliament meaning both Labor’s Anthony Albanese and the Coalition’s Peter Dutton are unlikely to be able to win the 76 seats for majority and govern in their own right. 

Enter the Teals: they are likely to play king maker - so this campaign they should, at the very least, be outlining their criteria for confidence and supply. Will they negotiate with whichever party secures the highest number of seats? Will they be part of any Labor government that do deals with the Greens? Will they negotiate with Peter Dutton given most of these Teal seats also have a high number of Liberal voters and Labor is a distant third?

All pertinent questions, the answers to which cannot wait until after election day. 

The Teal independents sent a political earthquake through the last election, unseating the long standing Liberal in blue ribbon seats in some of Sydney and Melbourne’s richest electorates. That was when climate change was top of the agenda, now families are more worried about paying the bills in a cost of living crisis. In 2025, some of those teal seats might go back to Peter Dutton if the swing is on. The WA seat of curtain perhaps, and Mackellar in NSW are seats to watch.

Tech.

Our political leaders are not talking about one of the most transformative advancement of our lifetime and they should be. 

Generative Artificial Intelligence is already impacting every single aspect of our lives and it will change our economy and society in a most profound way. Not in a decade. Now! It’s already happening. 

Our politicians need to catch up and get a seat at the table, or risk being on the menu. This conversation about AI is absent from political debate because it poses risks to job security in many industries. Hiding from it won’t make it go away, instead we need to talk about AI innovation and how we can reskill the workforce to embrace it. 

Will Australia create a national AI strategy to remain competitive? How will Australia regulate AI bias, misinformation and transparency? How does Australia protect itself from AI driven security threats?… just a few pertinent questions.

Trump.

Trump’s political style - populist, nationalist and confrontational - is unmistakable and by the fact he’s US President again there’s a fair amount of proof that it does work electorally. 

Yes, Australia is different to the United States when it comes to our appetite for division - but I think Australian voters do want a bit more straight talk and decisive action. 

This election you should expect to see a hint of the Trump effect. Some leaders will and should feel emboldened to take more decisive action and actually lead rather than run every decision through a psuedo committee process.

Why the west matters

Afternoon Agenda Political Presenter Ash Gillon

At the last election, Western Australia secured Anthony Albanese's victory, delivering Labor four extra seats.

This time around, a recent Newspoll suggests half of voters in WA do not believe the Prime Minister deserves to be re-elected.

Interestingly, Liberal insiders don't expect that growing anti-Albanese sentiment will see Labor lose many seats in the state.

In 2022, Labor picked up Tangney, Hasluck, Swan and Pearce from the Liberal Party. 

Of those four seats, only the extremely marginal Tangney is expected to return to the Liberal fold.

As former Liberal Premier Colin Barnett acknowledged in an interview with Sky News recently, the other seats all have hard working Labor MPs who are unlikely to be turfed out after just one term.  

Mr Barnett was far more bullish about the seat of Curtin, lost by the Liberals to the Independent MP Kate Chaney in 2022.

The former Premier, whose old state seat of Cottesloe falls into the Curtin electorate, believes the Liberal candidate Tom White will secure a strong enough primary vote to defeat Ms Chaney.

The other big hope for the Coalition is the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, where the stage is set for a three-way contest between Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals.

Notionally Bullwinkle is marginally a Labor seat.

However senior WA Liberals keep pointing to the 2019 result which they believe is more relevant than the 2022 outcome, when a strong anti Scott Morrison, pro Mark McGowan sentiment propelled Labor’s vote.

On 2019 figures, the seat looks marginally Liberal.

The Nationals have high hopes that their candidate, the former Nationals WA leader Mia Davies, can pick up the seat. Bullwinkel encompasses Mia Davies' home town of Northam and after serving as a state MP since 2008, she has strong name recognition in the electorate.

Although the seat does cover a lot of rural ground, around 90 per cent of the voting population lives in the more urban fringe area of the Perth Hills and surrounds, which could favour Liberal candidate, Matt Moran.

At the end of the day, either a Liberal or National win in Bullwinkel would be helpful for Peter Dutton’s push to win Government.

The Family grocery bill: This election could be decided at the checkout 

First Edition Political Presenter Peter Stefanovic 

This election won’t be won or lost by campaign speeches, door knocks, or policy pitches that are so far into the distant abyss; this election will be won in the supermarket.

You don’t need me to tell you things are way more expensive now than they were three years ago. Heck, I paid $8 for a flat white in the Sydney CBD a few months back. Actually, it was 8.18 with the debit card surcharge. Good times. 

I remember, not that long ago, thinking $100 was a lot. As a kid I earned two dollars a week in pocket money for doing my chores. Perhaps that’s ingrained in my psyche - the length of time it took me to get my savings into three figures. What I could buy back then was plentiful - time and inflation killed that.

These days you’ll be lucky to get out of Woolies or Coles for under that - especially if you’re feeding a family. 

I ran a quick checklist of prices for some essential items as I filled my trolley at woolies for the week ahead. Lo and behold prices are not falling - not that I was expecting them to. 

• $5 for 2 litres of milk. 
• $5 for a loaf of wonder white bread. 
• $10 for a block of Tasty cheese. 
• $7 for a small container of Lurpak butter. 
• $10 for 12 eggs. 
• $15 for a single steak - cheaper than a chicken breast or a piece of salmon. 

It goes up quickly, and that’s before you get to fruit and vegetables, laundry liquid and toilet rolls. On a tight budget there’s not a lot of room for much else. 

The latest CPI snapshot taken by the ABS indeed confirms this. In the 12 months from December 2023 to December 2024 most of your everyday items have climbed and continue to do so - meat and seafood, fruit and vegetables, food and non-alcoholic beverages all up. 

And then once you leave the supermarket you have fuel, rent, insurance, and energy bills to look forward to. 

Both sides of the political aisle are aware of supermarket costs - it is, after all, where everyone shops. That’s why there are coalition threats of divestment and labor legislation on price gouging even though the ACCC recently found no evidence of any. 

These price rises aren’t exclusive to a specific party as it’s been a gradual creep for as long as I can remember. But rarely has there been this perfect storm of extra costs hitting punters from everywhere all at once. 

The multi-billion dollar supermarkets claim the rises are just the price of running a business - import costs, insurance, transport, distribution, and wages are all up. Someone has to pay for that. Who? The humble consumer. It is, of course, legal. The result of a free market society so the grocery kings aren’t entirely to blame. Also look at the economic factors outside its control - high spending and government handouts leads to more money washing through system contributing to those inflationary pressures. 

As the Government notes on its own website “spending that provides additional money to people and organisations can in turn mean the money is used to purchase more goods and services—that is, adding to demand and increasing prices—the ‘demand-pull’ mechanism.”

When James Carville - Bill Clinton’s campaign strategist - famously said in 1992 that the election was about “the economy, stupid” .. well, that applies here. Sure, rusted on voters may stick to their preferred parties and ideological lines but most folks will vote with their wallets or purses in mind. Why keep someone in power who is costing you money?  

The answer to that lies at the checkout. 

A race too close to call

Chief News Anchor Kieran Gilbert

The result of this year’s election is well and truly up in the air. 

In many electoral cycles the outcome seen as a foregone conclusion.

Not this one.

So many Australians have been hurting for many months, struggling to deal with rising bills.

Then there's the terrible fear and uncertainty gripping the Jewish community in Australia that is reverberating much more broadly across the electorate.

Will voters gravitate towards the incumbent at this time of insecurity or will they back the tough on security approach and persona of former Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton?

Will the cut in interest rates give people hope?

Or will they be seen as too little too late as mortgage holders have struggled to get by for too long.

So much comes down to this election campaign, which leader is sharper and which party's strategy is more potent.

Watch out for key moments like each of the debates, the first of which will be on Sky News with our much anticipated people's forum. 

A gaffe under the glare of the national spotlight could be enough to shift this thing one way or the other.

Strap in for what will be an unpredictable and eventful ride. 

Sky News Australia's Federal Election 2025 campaign coverage has begun

Sky News Australia has now begun its unmatched live coverage and analysis of the 2025 Federal Election campaign as Australians decide whether Anthony Albanese’s Labor Government retains power, or if Peter Dutton leads the Coalition to victory at the Saturday 3 May poll.

Sky News Australia will cover every key press conference and policy announcement throughout the election campaign across its breadth of broadcast, digital and audio platforms including Sky News and the Sky News Election Channel, free-to-air channel Sky News Regional, FAST channel Sky News Now, SkyNews.com.au, the Sky News Australia app now available across mobile, tablet and compatible Smart TV devices, and Sky News Radio available on DAB+ digital radio in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

The Sky News 2025 Election team will be led by Chief News Anchor Kieran Gilbert, Political Editor Andrew Clennell and Chief Election Analyst Tom Connell. Political Reporters Trudy McIntosh, Cameron Reddin and Reuben Spargo will be travelling with Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

Throughout the election campaign Peter Stefanovic, Laura Jayes, Kieran Gilbert, Ashleigh Gillon and Tom Connell will spend time broadcasting their shows on the road showcasing the views of Australian voters across the country.

Tom Connell will also play a crucial role breaking down the data to provide viewers with a deeper understanding of the pivotal political strategies, swings, and seats.

Sky News’ unrivalled line-up of Australia’s best political commentators including Chris Kenny, Peta Credlin, Andrew Bolt, Sharri Markson and Paul Murray will bring viewers expert views and insights as live rolling coverage of the campaign unfolds.

In a series of special reports, the Sky News reporting team will showcase the key electorates across Australia that will decide the election result. The Battleground Breakdown features have already highlighted the key local issues and concerns affecting voters on the ground in marginal seats like Gilmore, Hunter, and Wannon with more profiles to be broadcast in the days ahead.

Throughout the campaign, politicians and candidates in battleground seats will face voter questions in a series of live televised debates, giving Sky News viewers unrestricted access to the faces and policies that matter most in the lead up to polling day.

Paul Murray will continue his favourite election program Paul Murray Live: Pub Test, taking politics to the people live from local pubs. The first of these was held in the electorate of Gilmore near Batemans Bay, New South Wales.

On Monday 31 March at 9:00pm, Paul sits down with Peter Dutton in his electorate of Dickson in Brisbane as he prepares for the upcoming Federal Election. During the live Pub Test, Mr Dutton will answer questions directly from the audience with nothing off limits.

In the final weeks of the campaign, the Democracy Sausage BBQ will hit the road across Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria with Sky News Investigative Reporter Jonathan Lea who will hear from the voting public on the key issues that matter to them.

From Monday, Sky News will air a new half hour edition of Politics Now: Campaign Trail weekdays at 4:00pm that will be hosted by Andrew Clennell and Tom Connell. 

Sunday Agenda with Andrew Clennell will continue the conversation as he puts our leaders under question with his sharp interviews and analysis of the campaign trail, Sundays at 8:00am.

Each Sunday at 6.00pm during the election campaign, Sky News Host James Morrow will present a new one hour show Campaign Confidential. During the hour James and his guests will cut through the spin in a no-holds-barred look at the election campaign.

The Politics Now Newsletter expands from parliamentary sitting weeks only to every weekday throughout the election campaign with a daily preview of leader movements and key political coverage delivered straight to your inbox at 6:00am. Register for the Politics Now Newsletter at SkyNews.com.au/Newsletters. 

Then on Saturday 3 May as Australians head to the polls, Sky News will provide the most in-depth and up-to-the-minute election day coverage, bringing viewers the latest updates, expert insights, and live analysis from across the country led by Kieran Gilbert and a panel of experts including Andrew Clennell, Peta Credlin, and Chris Uhlmann. The full election night panel will be announced in the coming weeks.

Sky News Australia’s Chief Executive Officer Paul Whittaker said: “This Federal Election will be critical for Australians as they consider what is the best way forward for our nation with the issues of housing affordability, energy supply and healthcare front of mind for many, and as the rising cost-of-living pressures continue to bear down. 

“Sky News has assembled the most experienced team of political reporters, analysts, and commentators to ensure Australians never miss a campaign announcement, policy promise or pitch. Through our live rolling coverage of the campaign trail, our team will scrutinise the pre-election pledges and break down the data to get to the heart of what it all means for our country.”

Sky News Australia’s Federal Election 2025 programming schedule

Find out all the ways you can be the first to know when big news breaks in this federal election campaign by accessing Sky News Australia.

• First Edition with Peter Stefanovic, weekdays at 5:30am
• AM Agenda with Laura Jayes, weekdays at 9:00am
• NewsDay with Kieran Gilbert, weekdays at 11:00am
• Afternoon Agenda with Tom Connell, Monday and Friday and Ashleigh Gillon, Tuesday-Thursday at 2:00pm
• Politics Now: Campaign Trail with Andrew Clennell and Tom Connell, weekdays at 4:00pm
• Business Now with Ross Greenwood, weekdays at 4:30pm
• The Kenny Report with Chris Kenny, Monday-Thursday at 5:00pm
• Credlin with Peta Credlin, Monday-Thursday at 6:00pm
• The Bolt Report with Andrew Bolt, Monday-Thursday at 7:00pm
• Sharri with Sharri Markson, Monday-Thursday at 8:00pm
• Paul Murray Live with Paul Murray, Sunday-Thursday at 9:00pm
• The Late Debate, hosted by James Macpherson, Liz Storer and Caleb Bond, Monday-Thursday at 10:00pm
• The Rita Panahi Show with Rita Panahi, Monday-Thursday at 11:00pm
• Danica De Giorgio with Danica De Giorgio, Fridays at 5:00pm
• Steve Price with Steve Price, Fridays at 6:00pm
• The World According to Rowan Dean with Rowan Dean Fridays at 7:00pm
• The U.S. Report with James Morrow, Fridays at 8:00pm
• Lefties Losing It with Rita Panahi, Fridays at 9:00pm
• The Media Show with Jack Houghton, Fridays at 9:30pm
• Weekend Edition with Tim Gilbert, weekends at 6:00am
• Sunday Agenda with Andrew Clennell, Sundays at 8:00am
• Outsiders with Rowan Dean, Rita Panahi and special guest co-host James Macpherson, Sundays at 9:00am
• Business Weekend with Ross Greenwood, Sundays at 11:00am
• Campaign Confidential with James Morrow, Sundays at 6:00pm
• Danica & James with Danica De Giorgio and James Macpherson, Sundays at 7:00pm
• The Sunday Showdown with Caleb Bond, Sundays at 8:00pm
• The Royal Report with Caroline Di Russo, Sundays at 10:00pm