What's next for war-torn Sudan?

Who is fighting?

The current conflict dates back to the end of the rule of Sudan's authoritarian President Omar Al-Bashir in 2019.

For decades, his rule was supported by the country's official army, the Sudan Armed Forces, or SAF. The army is now under the command of General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, who has become the country's de facto ruler.

But ousted dictator Al-Bashir also relied on the support of several militias, including the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF. These are now led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is commonly known as Hemeti.

Following the fall of al-Bashir, both the Sudanese army and the RSF joined a civilian-led transitional council. But in October 2021, they staged a coup together and Hemeti became Burhan's deputy. Eventually the two commanders clashed over the structure of a joint army when Hemeti refused to integrate his militia into the national army.

In April 2023, this led to a power struggle between the two, which has evolved into the war that has turned Sudan into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, according to the United Nations.

In the past two years, there have been several unsuccessful attempts to end the war at the negotiation table. But rivals Hemeti and Burhan remain opposed.

Will the conflict end soon?

Since April 2023, the RSF had controlled most of the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. But late last week the Sudanese army managed to recapture the presidential palace there and has since moved to take control of the airport and state institutions in the city. By Wednesday, Burhan was declaring that "Khartoum is free". However, RSF fighters still control large swaths of  the country, notably in the western Darfur region. 

Observers fear Sudan could break up. The RSF provided impetus for a parallel government in late February, when they signed a charter to form a government of "peace and unity" in areas under their control. The United Nations Security Council has already warned that the RSF's declaration could exacerbate the ongoing conflict in Sudan, fragment the country and further worsen the already bad humanitarian situation.

"Each side hopes to position themselves as the 'legitimate power' in the country," Leena Badri, a fellow at London-based think tank, Chatham House, told DW earlier this month.

The SAF has demanded the RSF withdraw and disarm before peace negotiations can begin. But the RSF wanted access to formal arms imports by forming a government, Badri noted.

And neither side has shown any willingness to end the fighting. As the US' Council on Foreign Relations recently put it: "Sudan’s two warring factions remain locked in a deadly power struggle."

Even if both sides were to agree on a ceasefire, it would still be hard to achieve. This is because both the RSF and the SAF have allied themselves with international backers and local militias that are also pursuing their own interests. As long as the violence serves their goals, they are unlikely to have much interest in  ending fighting that has caused between 40,000 and 120,000 deaths.

Which international players are involved?

Both generals are backed by international partners, who have their own economic or strategic interests.

Egypt and Qatar are on Burhan's side. "The government in Egypt does not cooperate with the RSF simply because they are not a state actor," Hager Ali, a Sudan expert at the Hamburg-based think tank, the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, told DW.

Burhan also established contacts with Iran last fall. Among other things, he has received combat drones from there. 

According to experts, RSF leader Hemeti is supported by the United Arab Emirates, although the Emiratis regularly deny this. The UAE is potentially interested in Sudan's gold mines, most of which are located in areas controlled by Hemeti.

Sudan was also an important food exporter for the UAE until the start of the war. Hemeti has also sent his fighters to help the UAE against the Houthi group in Yemen.

Russia is also involved but has flip-flopped. After initially supporting Hemeti, likely also with a view to Sudanese gold, Moscow has recently been leaning towards army chief Burhan. The Russians want to establish a logistics center in the SAF-controlled coastal city of Port Sudan. In February, the Sudanese government said they had agreed to this. The base would give Russia even more presence in Africa and a base on the Red Sea, near the world's most important shipping routes.

What about the humanitarian situation?

The war has pushed Sudan and its population of around 51 million into desperate straits. At least 8.8 million Sudanese are internally displaced and over 3 million people have sought refuge in neighboring countries, accordingto the UN's refugee agency.

Of the displaced, an estimated 70% are children. Large parts of the population are threatened by famine, something that is also the result of RSF militias systematically burning farmland.

Both the RSF and SAF have been accused of war crimes. Even sexual violence against small children often occurs, the UN's Children's Fund said. "An epidemic of sexual violence is raging. Children are being killed and injured. The suffering is appalling," Tom Fletcher, the UN's under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, said last month.

This article was originally published in German.