JUN KAJEE: US-SA tension could mean targeted sanctions against ANC figures

The expulsion of SA ambassador Ebrahim Rasool by US secretary of state Marco Rubio has brought already tense US-SA relations to a boiling point. Declared persona non grata and given 72 hours to leave the US, Rasool’s removal is a rare and dramatic diplomatic rebuke.

This incident is emblematic of the broader deterioration in relations between the two nations, fuelled by diverging foreign policy priorities and escalating rhetoric. 

The declaration that Rasool is “no longer welcome” in the US came after the ambassador’s controversial remarks during a think-tank webinar, where he criticised US President Donald Trump for “mobilising a supremacism against the incumbency”. Rubio in turn labelled Rasool a “race-baiting politician who hates America”. 

SA’s government called the expulsion “regrettable” but reaffirmed its commitment to fostering a mutually beneficial relationship with Washington. However, this diplomatic fallout underscores the growing chasm between Pretoria and the Trump administration, with broader implications for US-SA diplomacy. Relations between the two nations have been on a downward trajectory since Trump took office, and his administration has made several terse pronouncements against SA. 

Criticism of SA's foreign policy: the Trump administration has expressed disapproval of SA’s support for entities such as Hamas and Hezbollah, which it considers to be “bad actors”. 

Criticism of race-based policies: Trump has repeatedly criticised SA’s affirmative action policies and expropriation law, labelling them “racist” and discriminatory against the country’s white minority.

Refugee offer to SA farmers: Trump announced an expedited pathway to US citizenship for SA farmers and their families seeking to flee the country for safety reasons. 

Halting aid: Trump issued an executive order suspending all foreign aid to SA, including $440m in President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar) funding and $60m in USAID-backed projects tied to the just energy transition. 

President Cyril Ramaphosa has declared that SA “will not be bullied” and has recently published two articles that have strained US-SA relations further. In a foreign policy article co-authored with leaders from Colombia and Malaysia, Ramaphosa strongly condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza and accused the US of complicity in war crimes. He argued that Israel, with US support, has systematically undermined international law and human rights principles.

In an Al Jazeera opinion piece, co-authored with leaders from Brazil and Spain, Ramaphosa continued his critique of unilateral approaches to global challenges, advocating for a more inclusive international order and challenging the current power dynamics that favour Western nations. 

The potential for sanctions against SA based on the ANC’s policies and Ramaphosa's recent articles could be justified on several grounds. Ramaphosa's condemnation of US complicity in Israel’s actions in Gaza and his criticism of Western dominance in global affairs could be seen as challenging US foreign policy and aligning SA with US adversaries.

In addition, US officials have accused SA leaders of harbouring anti-US sentiments, which Ramaphosa’s published opinions might be perceived as reinforcing. During the apartheid era the ANC was at the forefront of calls for sanctions against SA’s white minority government. In 1962 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution 1761, which called for sanctions on SA. This resolution was strongly supported by the ANC and its international allies.

The movement recognised the power of economic pressure in forcing political change. These efforts eventually bore fruit in the mid-1980s when many nations, including the US, passed laws placing various trade sanctions on SA. The effectiveness of these measures was acknowledged by Nelson Mandela himself. When asked if economic sanctions helped bring an end to apartheid, Mandela replied “Oh, there is no doubt”. Now, in a twist of historical irony, the ANC — having fallen out of favour with Washington — faces the prospect of being on the receiving end of similar measures.

As tension escalates, targeted sanctions against senior ANC figures look increasingly likely, including the following:

Visa bans — travel restrictions on ANC officials could limit their ability to conduct business or travel freely to the US. The recent action against Rasool, while not a formal visa ban, in effect prevents him from remaining in the US to perform his duties. 

Corruption penalties — the US could leverage the Global Magnitsky Act to target officials involved in corruption and embezzlement. SA’s placement on the Financial Action Task Force’s greylist in 2022 due to inadequate action on terrorism financing and money laundering provides a basis for such sanctions. 

Asset freezes — targeting the personal wealth of corrupt officials could disrupt patronage networks within the ANC and weaken anti-US factions. This approach, exemplified by the US treasury’s sanctions against the Gupta family in 2019, can be effective in blocking access to US-controlled assets and hindering financial transactions of implicated individuals. 

It would be in the ANC’s best interests to de-escalate tension with the Trump administration, as avoiding US sanctions is crucial to safeguarding SA’s broader economic stability. US sanctions are not confined to US borders — their effect reverberates across the global financial system due to the dominance of the dollar and interconnected nature of international banking.

Measures such as secondary sanctions force foreign financial institutions to choose between accessing US markets or conducting business with sanctioned entities, while restrictions on access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) payment system — the backbone of international transactions — can isolate targeted parties from participation in the global economy.

For the ANC, such sanctions would severely undermine its ability to fund its operations, leading to internal instability and a loss of political influence for key figures. Consequently, the immediate repercussions would be likely to exacerbate SA’s mounting challenges, making it increasingly difficult for the ANC to fulfil its commitments and maintain public support.

• Kajee is a lecturer and adjunct faculty member at Ling Tung University in Taiwan, focusing on internationalisation and intercultural communication.