Recently, in addition to local conflicts, we have observed an increase in sabotage actions targeting the critical infrastructure of individual states, largely carried out in connection with these conflicts. Some are attributed to Russian activities, while others have harmed Russia's interests and economy, thereby affecting its war effort.

Which "probable" sabotages have already happened

Among the most notorious are the repeated cases of damage to telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea that provide internet connections or explosions on ships of the so-called Russian shadow fleet, which includes an estimated 600 vessels carrying Russian oil. The ships of this fleet hide behind different names and the possibility of flying the flags of other countries. Their true ownership is often difficult to ascertain. In this way, Russia has largely managed to circumvent sanctions on its oil through the so-called shadow fleet. On the other hand, Russia has been blamed, for example, for the fires in Poland and elsewhere in Europe. Russia itself is now facing an increased number of sabotages, especially from the Ukrainian side. This is also evidenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement at the annual meeting of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), where he said, "It is necessary for the FSB and other law enforcement agencies and bodies under the coordination of the National Anti-Terrorism Committee to make maximum effective use of existing resources, especially in the implementation of preventive measures and increased anti-terrorist protection of military and industrial facilities, critical civilian, energy and transport infrastructure, as well as public facilities."

Europe as a target for hybrid operations

Sabotage operations on the territory of Europe can also be linked to the conflict in Ukraine, and their further expansion cannot be ruled out. The weakening of Europe by the US's departure from its current approach to the conflict in Ukraine also risks giving Russia more courage and resources to target the very European states that are most committed to Ukraine. This outlined form of confrontation is another part of hybrid warfare, which may further include, for example, cyber-attacks or targeted measures against the economies of selected countries or the EU as a whole. The primary objective of these operations is to cause chaos, fear in society or to paralyse the ability and will of a given state to continue to support Ukraine.

"I think they are going to do a lot more and on a larger scale to attack that critical infrastructure of individual countries. Which is already happening, but it is still on a controllable scale and we will have to prepare for that," said security analyst Jiří Šedivý.

However, it must be taken into account that Russia is most likely not interested in going into open military conflict with European states supporting Ukraine. However, this does not mean that it will not react in any way to this support.

Possible US-Russia geopolitical cooperation

As it happens in politics, the interests of the great powers can find compromises and consensus on those essential areas, which are undoubtedly security and economy. It can be expected that US President Donald Trump, in return for his accommodating approach to Russia, will expect help in negotiating or supporting its interests vis-à-vis Iran, North Korea or China. And Russia, thanks to its increasingly close cooperation with these countries, clearly has 'something' to offer. One of the topics for negotiation may also be the preservation of the role of the US dollar and limiting efforts to replace it or other economic interests. We will soon find out how Russia's cooperation with the US will ultimately affect Europe. However, as far as Russia's behaviour towards Europe is concerned, we have to take into account that the very poor relations between Russia and most European countries that have developed against the background of the Ukrainian conflict will be reflected in it.