In his book, White House Years, Henry Kissinger wrote that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” This dictum has been the hallmark of American Foreign Policy ever since its foundation. The US-India strategic partnership of the two decades, based on the aligned interests of both in the Asia-Pacific and against China, is a testament to this American way of thinking. The two sides are now undertaking measures to ease the way forward for the next decade. This includes easing of laws to facilitate cooperation and nomination of individuals like Paul Kapur, a proponent of greater US-India strategic ties, for a key position within the US government. Most of these measures are detrimental to the security and strategic interests of Pakistan as the only other nuclear-armed state in the South Asian region.
During PM Modi’s recent visit to the US, the two leaders agreed to sign a new ten-year framework for ‘US-India Major Defence Partnership in the 21st Century. India is also in the process of amending its civil nuclear liability laws to facilitate partnerships with private entities and international firms. On the other hand, the US National Security Advisor announced that the US would be easing its longstanding regulations that have prevented collaboration between India's leading nuclear entities and US companies.
The latest development in this regard has been the Trump administration’s nomination of Paul Kapur as the next US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs. Kapur, a scholar of Indian origin, has been a strong proponent for deepening the strategic ties between India and the US. His research scholarship, which includes books like ‘Dangerous Deterrent’ as well as articles like ‘India and Pakistan’s Unstable Peace’ also echoes his prevalent bias regarding Pakistan. In numerous instances, he has insinuated that Pakistan is an instigator of instability in the region through its support of Islamist militia groups. He has also alleged that the Pakistani military nuclear programme affords it safety from any Indian retaliation and this has emboldened the country to carry out low-intensity warfare in Kashmir and Afghanistan.
He may dovetail Pakistan’s nuclear programme with the issue of terrorism, which he has done in the past through his writings, even though the two issues are separate and require different approaches
The fact that Pakistan itself has remained a victim of terrorism, especially in the aftermath of 9/11 and the subsequent support granted to the US in its War against Terrorism has been dismissed in his writings. He has also criticised the Biden government’s cautious balance in South Asia and their acknowledgment of Pakistan’s substantive role in the Afghanistan Peace Process during the last two decades of US occupation.
On the other hand, Kapur’s views towards India showcase a stark contrast. He has criticised the previous US administration for placing India in a lower tier than other allies in their policy documents which, according to Kapur, undermined the US-India strategic partnership. He has also trivialised the Indian atrocities against minorities and rising human rights concerns by criticising former US Foreign Secretary Lloyd Austin for bringing it up during his visit to New Delhi. He termed it a misstep that would hinder US-Indian bilateral defence relations. He has also criticised the Biden administration for failing to build upon the policies of the previous Trump government, particularly towards India.
If Kapur’s nomination in this vital policy role is finalised, it would not only result in a greater US tilt towards India, which is already in evidence, but could also result in a more skeptical US approach towards Pakistan. Under Kapur, the region is likely to witness further instability as he will push for augmenting the US-India military and defence collaboration.
Additionally, given his previous dichotomous stance on the nuclear policies of Pakistan and India, he is likely to take a dual approach towards the nuclear compulsions of both states. He may dovetail Pakistan’s nuclear programme with the issue of terrorism, which he has done in the past through his writings, even though the two issues are separate and require different approaches. He is also likely to amp up the pressure on Pakistan to take more decisive actions against terrorism. The fact that the current wave of terrorism in the country is emanating from Afghanistan, owing to the security vacuum left after the US pull-out during President Trump’s previous term, is not likely to factor into the conversation.
Kapur’s appointment suggests a definitive tilt towards India in the current US administration, presenting a challenge for Pakistan. The latter must recalibrate its future diplomatic and strategic policies to off-set the potential implications of this development to maintain regional balance. Pakistan also needs to augment its existing partnerships with key non-western countries like China, an all-weather friend, Russia as well as important Middle Eastern powers. In this regard, Pakistan must follow Kissinger’s dictum of keeping its interests supreme while formulating its foreign policy choices.
